TEHRAN-President-elect Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's election victory completes a conservative grip on Iran's main levers of power that will likely lead to greater tension with the West and a more isolationist economic policy.

But a tougher Iranian stance on its controversial nuclear programme and other issues will emerge only slowly through Iran's system of clerical rule that gives Supreme Leader Ali Ayatollah Khamenei the final say in state affairs, analysts say.

And they say the latest conservative victory will expose internal rifts in the conservative camp and may encourage more political pragmatism because they no longer have reformists under outgoing President Mohammad Khatami to blame for failures.

Ahmadinejad, who swept to victory in June 24's presidential vote over moderate cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, takes over in August from Khatami, whose own policies of political reforms and detente with the West were ambushed by hardline bodies.

"Over time, we will see a hardening of the (Iran's) position. It will not be immediate,?said Iranian analyst Mahmoud Alinejad, adding it would involve a more chauvinistic foreign policy and a focus on domestic, not foreign, investment.

"It will be a policy that has the danger of confrontation though there are pragmatic people who might try to prevent that,?he said, adding that Ahmadinejad had won over Iran's religious poor by presenting himself as an outsider.

Ahmadinejad's victory was the latest by a new breed of hard line politicians, many of them former Revolutionary Guardsmen, who won local council and parliamentary elections in 2003 and 2004 amid disillusionment with the slow pace of change and frustration among the poor that their lot had not improved.

Like Ahmadinejad, the hardliners are fiercely loyal to Khamenei and the religious principles of the Islamic revolution.

Hardliners, who support the supreme leader, already control the other key bodies such as parliament, judiciary, the army and a powerful constitutional watchdog. With the presidency now falling to a hardliner, it gives conservatives a clean sweep.

Exposing divisions

But conservatives in office will have to assume more of the blame for any political or economic failings with reformists losing their powerbase after Khatami's departure.

"There will be more division exposed among the conservatives, that will be one of the positive points, because it will give room for reformists to continue,?Alinejad said.

He said reformists, who had focused on social and political freedoms, would need to appeal more effectively to the poor, who had voted for Ahmadinejad in droves after Khatami's reforming efforts failed to deliver jobs and better living standards.

In a campaign where others advocated better ties with the United States, Ahmadinejad said this was not a solution to Iran's ills and railed against rich cliques he said had benefited at the expense of the poor as oil revenues poured in.

"We must resolve our domestic problems and become a stronger country. Under such conditions, we will be less vulnerable to foreign threats,?Ahmadinejad said during the campaign.

He has said that his government would not buckle in negotiations with the West, including over Iran's nuclear programme, which Tehran says is to produce electricity but which the United States and Europe suspect is to make atomic bombs.

"I think Ahmadinejad is less amenable to compromise on the nuclear issue, but it is unclear how much influence he will have on it,?said Karim Sadjadpour, Tehran-based analyst of the International Crisis Group.

Nuclear negotiations are handled by Iran's National Security Council, which is answerable to the supreme leader.

Oil price cushion

A senior Western diplomat said he expected Iran, which has suspended enrichment under a deal with the Europeans, to become more intransigent in negotiations, sticking to its commitment to resume enrichment.

Failure to reach a deal over enrichment, which Europe and the United States want scrapped, could lead to the issue being sent to the UN Security Council with the threat of sanctions.

Yet with the cushion of sky-high oil prices, Ahmadinejad will find it easier to pursue his populist election pledges to spread wealth and public support for a tougher stance abroad, analysts say.

But analysts say much of Ahmadinejad's programme will have to depend on government investment and will struggle to generate the private investment he seeks to help encourage entrepreneurs without appealing to the wealthy, who voted against him.

"To create jobs he needs to attract investors, people with money. This is the paradox of his campaign,?said one Iranian analyst who asked not to be named.

Analysts say he will also face pressure from the Revolutionary Guards and Basij religious militia, the guardians of Islamic revolutionary ideals, who opponents say came out in force to vote for Ahmadinejad, although he denies this.

"He will be pulled by forces of pragmatism and radicalism. It is going to be very demanding task for him and I think he would opt for moderate pragmatism,?the analysts said.

But Ahmadinejad's backers include Abadgaran, a hard line group that dominates parliament. Despite promises of moderation before they were elected in 2004, the group have blocked foreign investment deals, voted to keep heavy fuel subsidies and demanded Iran develop the nuclear fuel cycle. (Agencies via Xinhua)