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Unwelcome reformer
LONDON - Prime Minister Tony Blair wanted to champion an agenda of liberal economic reform during Britain's six-month presidency of the European Union and use the idea to win over his Eurosceptic public. But analysts say sorting out the disarray in the EU after the French and Dutch voted against the EU constitution in referendums was likely to overshadow Britain's time at the helm. And the fact many French voters argued that the constitution amounted to little more than a charter for an Anglo-Saxon economic model could also undermine Blair's plan for reform. Blair, keen to secure a legacy other than the unpopular Iraq war, has long declared an ambition to put Britain at the heart of Europe. But time is running out. "There are a number of reasons which make it difficult for Blair to put Britain at the centre of the EU," said Emil Kirchner, professor of European studies at Essex University. "How he will extricate himself from the presidency with some glory for his swansong is hard to see." Re-elected last month, Blair has said this will be his last term. He was widely expected to stand down next year after a British referendum on the EU constitution. That plebiscite now looks highly unlikely following the French and Dutch votes. But Blair has also promised an orderly transition to his successor, meaning he has to go well before the next election, due in 2009-10. Many in his party also regard him as a liability and could force him out as early as next year. With tensions rising in the fallout of the referendums, Blair faces a fight during Britain's presidency to convince core EU members, especially France, to back his economic agenda although many of them are suffering from weak growth and high unemployment. Robbed "There is a danger that picking up the pieces of the constitution will overshadow the presidency," said Alasdair Murray of the Centre for European Reform. The EU's "Lisbon agenda" envisages further internal market liberalization, including opening the services sector to cross-border competition, raising employment levels and investing in education and research. Blair wants to promote that agenda but France, which prefers greater worker protection, is less keen. In the aftermath of the French and Dutch "No" votes, Britain has pledged to hold a debate about how the European economy can face up to modern challenges amid growing popular anxiety. Officials say they will be careful to frame the agenda in a non-confrontational way, but Blair can expect short shrift from bruised French President Jacques Chirac. "One thing you can take away from the French poll is that the French public don't like the idea of the EU moving away from a French socio-economic model," said Richard Whitman, of London's Royal Institute of International Affairs. "This gives Chirac a mandate to stand up for it." Although the British economy has fared better in terms of jobs and growth, Blair's influence is weakened by his decision not to join the euro, say analysts. "Britain cannot claim to lead in Europe when it is outside the euro. However appropriate their ideas are, there is always the feeling the British are not committed," said Whitman. Britain's determination to cling to its cherished budget rebate, despite opposition from all other EU members, also undermines Blair's bargaining power. With German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and Chirac likely to have left office in two years, Blair may ultimately win the argument, say analysts. But any long-term aligning of interests between Britain and the EU are likely to be too late for Blair too. (Agencies via Xinhua) |
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