RAMALLAH, West Bank - Hamas' decision to run for the Palestinian parliament for the first time could turn the powerful militant group away from violence but also tie President Mahmoud Abbas' hands in any peace talks with Israel.

Abbas welcomed the Hamas move as he prepared to meet militant group leaders in Cairo this week in the hope of getting them to declare a formal ceasefire, shoring up a tacit deal he struck with them in January.

"This move is a victory for the pragmatists in Hamas," said Jibril Rajoub, security aide to Abbas who was elected to succeed the late Yasser Arafat on a platform of ending bloodshed so he can negotiate with Israel about a state on occupied land.

A stake in national public office could wean Hamas off the campaign of violence, including many suicide bombings, it has waged against Israel and encourage it to support negotiations on statehood in Gaza and the West Bank.

But Hamas' shift also poses risks to Abbas.

Analysts noted that Hamas has been riding a public backlash against corruption and chaos in Abbas' Fatah party to win big gains in opinion polls and sees a solution to the Middle East conflict in Israel's destruction, not co-existence as he wants.

"No doubt Hamas' integration into the political process will moderate its positions, with time. But the immediate impact of a Hamas victory will paralyze decision-making vis-a-vis Israel," said political analyst Khalil Shikaki.

Despite that, he said this doesn't mean negotiations with Israel will be killed off.

An opinion poll taken this month found 25 per cent support for Hamas, up from 18 per cent in November, while Fatah slid to 36 per cent from 40 per cent, extending a downward trend. But backing for suicide bombings among Palestinians had fallen to 29 from 75 per cent.

"We have opted to reap political gains from our popularity before it weakens. We are also aware that our people's state of mind is against martyrdom attacks," said a Hamas official, alluding to suicide attacks.

Hamas shift

He said Hamas leaders were now debating whether to seek posts in Palestinian Government and negotiate with Israel.

Israeli officials reacted coolly to Hamas's announcement of a general election bid, saying it could obstruct peace steps.

"One has to be very cautious on this subject but at the moment all Hamas wants, and preaches openly, is our destruction. They are extremely dangerous, not just to us but to (Abbas') Palestinian Authority," government spokesman Avi Pazner said. Palestinian commentators believe Hamas could win almost half the seats in parliament in the July 17 election if Fatah does not crack down on systemic corruption and mismanagement.

Shikaki said Islamists in Authority positions could also brake a democratic reform drive undertaken by Abbas to qualify Palestinians for the US-backed "road map" peace process.

"Hamas could use political weight to influence legislation and this could have significant implications for the nature of the political system that emerges. The transition to democracy would stop. Hamas is pragmatic, but not liberal," he said.

Analysts say Hamas began a long, quiet rethink during a US-led "war on terror" touched off by the September 11 attacks.

The change in international attitudes freed up Israel's hands to assassinate top Hamas leaders without serious criticism and led wary Hamas donors abroad to slash funding to the group.

Two far-reaching developments over the past year were decisive for Hamas, the analysts say.

The first was Sharon's plan to evacuate the occupied Gaza Strip, where Hamas is more popular than Fatah, later this year. The potential to become the key powerbroker in Gaza, claiming credit for the Israeli exit, is irresistible, analysts said.

There has also been a broad swing in Palestinian sentiment in favour of giving peacemaking a chance after the November death of Yasser Arafat, under whom violence had mired Palestinians in a paralyzing stalemate with Israel.

Hamas has raised the possibility of a formal ceasefire if Israel frees all 8,000 Palestinian prisoners, pulls its army away from Palestinian cities, stops building West Bank settlements and tears down a barrier being erected around them.

Israel is in talks with Abbas on prisoners and army pullbacks but has dismissed the other demands as non-starters.

It also says it will not embark on statehood negotiations unless Abbas dissolves militant factions. Abbas has declined to crack down on them, fearing civil war. Instead, he wants to co-opt them into mainstream institutions through dialogue.

To Hamas, Israeli demands to disarm are also a non-starter.

"Hamas wants to take the political path and keep resistance options open," the Hamas official said. "We want to be like Hizbollah, have the cake and eat it too," he said, referring to the Lebanese militant movement emulated by Palestinian radicals.

(Agencies via Xinhua)