LONDON ?Friendless and frustrated, Syria is staring at a military withdrawal from Lebanon and a dramatic erosion of its influence there and in the wider Middle East.

Reversals suffered as a result of alienating world powers, many Lebanese and now key Arab allies have set President Bashar al-Assad his sternest test since he replaced his father in 2000 and made as yet largely unkept promises of reform, analysts say.

Unless seen as a pride-saving prelude to a total pullout, that would not be enough to satisfy Syria's opponents in Lebanon, or the United States and its European allies.

Whether or not Syria had a hand in the February 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, calls for it to end three decades of military, political and economic meddling in its small neighbour have risen to a clamour.

"They should withdraw immediately. This is what we told them and this is what the whole world is telling them,?a Saudi source said after Assad's visit to Riyadh on March 3.

Analysts said a Syrian withdrawal was now inevitable, with only its timing and terms still in doubt, after a series of miscalculations that have set Damascus at odds with the world.

"For six months the Syrians have misjudged in thinking the United States was isolated in its attempts to put pressure on them,?said Daniel Neep, a London-based Syria analyst.

Backs to wall

Syria has been defying last year's UN resolution sponsored by Washington and Paris that demands a Lebanon free of foreign forces, armed militias and political interference.

Damascus complains that Washington has ignored its help in fighting Islamic terrorism since the September 11, 2001, attacks, while criticizing it unfairly for supporting Iraqi insurgents, Palestinian militants and Lebanese Hizbollah guerrillas.

But Syria's heavy-handed tactics in engineering an extension of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud's term in October pushed former allies like Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and Hariri himself towards strident Christian foes of its grip on Lebanon.

Hariri's assassination was the last straw, releasing pent-up Lebanese anger against the Syrians and adding Arab opinion to the international groundswell demanding a pullout.

"The withdrawal will happen. It may be two months or six, but it will be complete,?said Volker Perthes, German author of a recent paper on Syria for London's International Institute for Strategic Studies.

He said the Syrians would have to negotiate the pullout with UN envoy Terje Roed-Larsen, who is due in the region soon.

"The Syrians have lost Arab support, though Saudi Arabia and Egypt might find a way to save their (Syria's) face,?Perthes said. "The Lebanese would be well advised not to make things too humiliating, both for the sake of future ties with Syria and their own stability ?Syria still has loyalists in Lebanon.?

Syria has viewed Lebanon as a strategic asset, a political client and a key economic outlet for decades. Arab nationalists in Damascus have long seen Lebanon as rightfully part of Syria, sliced off by Franco-British colonial machinations in the 1920s.

Diminished power

But Syria's once paramount influence in Lebanon has been battered by the Sunni Muslim, Druze and Christian outcry over the death of Hariri, a Sunni with close ties to Saudi Arabia, and its standing among Arabs is now at a low ebb.

"There is not much left of the Syrian role in the region,?Perthes said. "They have played their hand badly and lost. They failed to see the writing on the wall. That's life.?

Neep said Syria's self-image as the leader of Arab radicalism looked outdated, especially after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's rival Baath party in Iraq and elections there.

"The historic moment for that has passed. Arab public opinion has moved on from old-style Arab nationalism,?he said.

The Syrians have been paralyzed by the historic legacy of Hafez al-Assad, the source of his son's legitimacy, Neep argued.

"This comes with red lines that the Syrians are very reluctant to cross. They fear instability and would rather stick with the familiar. But now Bashar needs to be more creative and move ahead. Is he the man to do it??he asked.

Perthes said Assad had a last chance to build a new domestic coalition, get rid of hardliners and ensure a "soft landing?for change in Syria that would include reasonably open parliamentary elections before his own term expires in two years.

Yet questions remain over whether Assad can stamp his authority on Syria's competing security organs, neutralize "old guard?figures from his father's day or tackle a powerful younger generation with economic interests in the status quo.

Syrians may be accustomed to the nationalist rhetoric of officialdom, but with access to pan-Arab satellite television channels and the Internet, many are aware of a reality gap.

"Lebanon shows the speed at which ideological conformity can slip away,?Neep said. "It might be more dramatic in Syria.?

(Agencies via Xinhua)