LONDON - Blame fierce globalization, greedy bosses, cowed workers or just the facts of life in free market economies - but many Europeans are starting to accept they may have to work longer hours to safeguard their jobs.

Prompted by recent one-off labour agreements in Germany, public opinion shifts and a change of political gear in Paris, and Berlin, economists detect the winds of change and say the implications could be enormous for the future of the region.

The euro zone is facing dire demographic trends which are likely to see its working population, and hence its economic capacity and potential, decline over the coming decade unless either output per worker or its income growth accelerates fast.

Working harder - with or without extra pay - appears difficult to avoid.

"The cases we've seen are still isolated events but they look like bellwethers of the future," said Paul Swaim, economist at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Swaim was one author of the OECD's 2004 Employment Outlook, which starkly illustrated the divergence in working time between Europe and the US over 30 years.

Since 1970, OECD data shows work hours per head in Germany, France, Finland and Spain fell by about 15 per cent while those in the US, Canada and New Zealand rose by 15 per cent.

Last year, average annual hours worked by employees in Germany, France and the Netherlands all came in under 1,400. The equivalent number for US and Japanese workers was 1,777 and 1,828 and in Britain was about 1,650.

Add the fact that Germany has the second highest labour costs in the world and the economic strain becomes clear.

For generations, it was accepted that as societies became wealthier fewer working hours were needed and more leisure time was possible and desirable. But that consensus broke down in the 1980s.

Business-friendly governments and supply-side economics in the US and Britain pushed working hours higher again just as continental Europeans drove harder for a shorter workweek, either as a trade-off for wage restraint or as a way of prodding employers to create more jobs.

The former approach accelerated long-tern growth at a price. The OECD ranks the US, Britain, Canada and New Zealand as the four countries with the weakest employment protection laws of its 30 members.

Continental Europe went the other direction. German unions forced manufacturing firms to accept a 35-hour week with a wave of industrial unrest in 1984. In 2000, France followed suit when Lionel Jospin's government enforced the same for all employees.

Elastic snaps?

Now, the elastic separating divergent trends between the big English-speaking economies and the euro zone may have snapped.

Last month, industrial giant Siemens, while threatening to move thousands of jobs to Hungary, agreed with unions and workers in two German mobile phone plants to increase the working week to 40 hours from 35 hours for no extra pay.

Workers at these plants and the IG Metall union agreed to an effective 12.5 per cent cut in hourly wages to save their jobs.

Dozens of other German firms are reported to be seeking similar pacts. Carmaker DaimlerChrysler is negotiating longer hours with more pay for some staff and thousands of public sector workers are being required to work longer.

An opinion poll this month found 57 per cent of Germans believed employers and unions should re-introduce the 40-hour week to reduce labour costs. Asked if they would work longer with no extra pay to secure jobs, 79 per cent said "Yes". Even 63 per cent of union members agreed.

Unease about the working week is not limited to Germany.

The French government has raised questions about the functioning of the 35-hour week as opinion polls show an appetite among workers for more flexibility at least.

French Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy is advocating more freedom for workers to choose how long they work. European Union Trade Commissioner Mario Monti echoed that call this week.

With euro zone unemployment at 9 per cent and job creation still miserable during the fastest world economic expansion in 16 years, something seems to have started to give.

EU data shows the average workweek for full-time employees across the euro zone rose 0.1 hours to 41.1 in 2003.

"The euro area experiment of attempting to boost job growth via a lower workweek may be ending," said Juergen Michels, economist at Citigroup in London. "A more flexible approach to work duration - including a lengthening of working hours on a case by case basis - could become the norm in coming years."

Michels said the changes may not boost jobs in the short-run but may prevent them going abroad. more secure employment may improve dire consumer confidence and reverse a steep build up in the German savings ratio.

More profitable firms will aid inward investment and growth, he added, and lower labour costs should keep interest rates low.

And while some see acceptance of longer hours damaging Europe's core social and economic model beyond repair, others say flexibility now is the only way to protect the bulk of it.

"Working more is the only way for Europeans to save what can still be saved of their social model - good quality healthcare services and decent pensions for all," said Eric Chaney, economist at Morgan Stanley in Paris.

"It does not need a rocket scientist to see that, in order to fund pensions for a growing number of retirees and ever more costly medical services, Europe needs to grow income faster."

(Agencies via Xinhua)