WASHINGTON - The US Administration's low key handover of power in Iraq, said by President George W. Bush to usher in a new reign of freedom, leaves the Arab nation on a treacherous path to stability, US experts said.

As Prime Minister Iyad Allawi mulled the possibility of martial law, experts said the new interim government in Baghdad may have to defy US authorities on key security issues to establish credibility among ordinary Iraqis.

The violence that has racked the country in the last year could also worsen further as insurgents try to drive a wedge between the Bush administration and the country's new leaders over hot spots such as Falluja.

Brent Scowcroft, who was national security adviser to President Gerald Ford and to Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, said that was one of two ways in which things could get worse in the country.

The other was a possible power struggle. "You may find an increase in violence among the factions as they jockey for power," the retired Army general said.

The Bush administration put a celebratory face on Tuesday's handover of power, which formally ended 14 months of US-led occupation in a modest ceremony that was moved up by two days partly to foil possible guerrilla attacks.

Bush followed up the transition by renewing his call for countries across the Middle East to embrace democratic reforms. He had said ousting President Saddam Hussein was aimed at making the whole region democratic.

Critics, however, said his Iraq policy was a diplomatic failure that tarnished US relations with long-standing allies and stirred anti-American anger in the Muslim world. They said it could still result in civil war.

"The Bush administration should have thought two years ago that there actually could be worse things in Iraq than Saddam Hussein," said H.W. Brands, a political historian at Texas A&M University.

"Hope isn't quite dead, but it's sure on its last legs," he said. "What the president is learning is that there's this huge gap between what you can hope for and what you can expect in foreign affairs."

Last-ditch effort

Bill Harrop, a former US ambassador to Israel, said, "The handover is an important moment because it's a kind of real last-ditch effort to obtain international support and backing for the US position in Iraq and try to find a degree of support from the Iraqi people."

"I think it's unlikely to be successful," added Harrop, one of a group of 26 former US officials who say Bush's policies have isolated America in the world and who have urged voters to defeat him in the November election.

With the Iraq policy deeply unpopular, A New York Times/CBS poll published on Tuesday showed the president's approval rating at a new low of 42 percent as the Republican faces a tough election fight with Democrat John Kerry.

Some analysts, who acknowledge that Iraq faces a long and torturous march to permanent self-government, say there is hope in polling data there that registers confidence in the interim government among a majority of Iraqis.

"It is, at least at some level, an opportunity for this government to show itself willing to strongly represent Iraqi concerns to the United States and act in a way that shows it's not a puppet," said W. Andrew Terrill, an analyst at the Army War College in Carlisle, Pennsylvania.

Analysts expect Iraqi leaders to try to demonstrate their independence from US policymakers on issues such political accommodation for insurgent leaders including Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Some conservatives say they hope US troops remain in Iraq indefinitely as a permanent presences in the Middle East.

"Even if we're successful with the internal struggle in Iraq, this will be a Shia dominated proto-democracy in the Arab heartland. It's going to have repercussions and we have to make sure this thing's protected," said Thomas Donnelly, a national security expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

(Agencies via Xinhua)