THE final episode of the current disaster won't be seen for at least another three or five years, Zhou Shuicheng believes.

The 55-year farmer started chicken farming in 1986, and is known as the "chicken farming champion" in Meiyuan village of Fengxian District.

With the sudden impact of avian flu, his 6,000 chickens have become a very uncertain prospect.

"Fortunately, about 6,000 chickens were sold before the Spring Festival," Zhou said.

Zhou's birds are a breed of "wu gu" chicken, characterized by white feathers and dark bones and claws, known for their high nutritional quality.

The chickens grow to their full weight in three or four months, when they are ready to be marketed. The 6,000 chickens will be fully grown in just one and half months time. If they can't be sold by then, they will consume about 25,000 yuan (US$3,012) worth of food every month without producing any additional meat.

Zhou keeps a close eye on the latest news about avian flu in the papers. Having given all his chickens two vaccinations each, he believes his chickens are safe from the disease.

When the local veterinary station lacked staff, Zhou went himself to help vaccinate the poultry in nearby farms.

"Even the few chickens and ducks kept in the farmers' houses were vaccinated," Zhou said.

He used to buy the vaccine himself, but as soon as the flu hit local poultry in the Nanhui District, poultry farmers were handed the vaccine for free.

Changing response

Now trade in live poultry is banned at the local market. Although this is not the first time avian flu has struck, it is by far the worst incident.

Zhou's farm was affected by avian flu in 2001, when 20,000 chickens died in just three days. "The flu was brought in on transportation trucks from Hong Kong," Zhou recalled. "There was not so much emphasis on this issue then."

There were no vaccines in town at that time, so he had to buy the medicine from Guangzhou so he could give his chickens the injections. "I didn't know at that time, that the medicine wouldn't take effect until 20 days later."

Zhou's dead chickens were taken away by local pig farmers on that occasion.

"The idea that chickens were dangerous lingered in people's minds for a long time," Zhou said. Usually, when the production of chickens is reduced, the price rises. But things are very different this time. "People are intentionally avoiding eating chicken, and this will carry on for years."

Zhou is considering changing careers and becoming an orchardist. "Nanhui District is promoting greening projects and the government supports fruit tree planting," Zhou said.