LONDON - Tough new US security measures are likely to raise fears among airline passengers rather than allay them, and US and European airlines are likely to suffer the most, analysts said on Monday.

The United States, which moved to its second highest state of alert on December 21, has said it will require armed air marshals on select flights on foreign airlines. On Monday it began fingerprinting and photographing foreign travellers arriving at more than 100 US airports.

"Putting air marshals on board may have the complete reverse effect," said Chris Tarry, an industry analyst at London consultancy Ctaira. "People say, 'Hey, wait a minute, maybe there's a real threat, maybe I won't fly."'

Hijack attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 had a profound effect on the industry, and since then US travellers have proven to be the most sensitive to security concerns.

That trend has hurt US carriers such as American Airlines as well as British Airways, Air France and others in Europe for whom transatlantic business travellers are a key source of income.

Airline scheduling data shows US travel fears continue to keep transatlantic traffic well below its level before the September attacks.

"You're looking at around 5,000 flights a week now. Pre-September 11 you were looking at nearer 6,000," said Lynne Fraser, a spokeswoman for data firm OAG.

The new rules on fingerprinting and photographing waive passport holders from many European countries, but analysts said they would hurt US and European carriers.

"It's the nuisance factor," said airlines analyst Nick van den Brul at BNP Paribas, referring to expected cancellations, delays and rigorous airport screening procedures.

Transatlantic hit

A smooth transition to new security equipment and better co-ordination between US authorities and those foreign carriers that they have asked to have armed air marshals on some flights will be key to limiting the negative fallout on airlines, analysts said.

"The question is what is the US Government going to put in place and how are they going to manage it," said van den Brul.

The numbers of travellers on air routes in the United States and across the Atlantic have shown the sharpest fall-out from security fears. The war in Iraq had a greater impact on those figures than on routes around the war zone.

"It didn't affect the Middle East that much. The areas it affected tended to be US domestic and again transatlantic US to western Europe," Fraser said.

The industry has grappled with the downturn by parking unneeded planes and lowering frequencies on affected routes.

Analysts believe heightened US measures, including armed air marshals on planes, will probably provide another disincentive to fly and further hurt the struggling industry, which is expected to post some US$10 billion in losses for 2003.

Efforts to improve security have helped prevent a major hijacking incident since 2001, but US Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said last month that al Qaeda may be planning an attack to "rival or exceed" the 2001 attacks on New York's World Trade Centre and the Pentagon.

Such warnings and US measures underscoring that authorities are taking seriously threats to airliners spell bad news for airlines that had hoped to see the end to a three-year slowdown in 2004.

"It doesn't do a lot for traveller confidence," said Tarry at Ctaira. The weekend crash of a charter plane off Egypt, despite no initial indication of sabotage, worsens sentiment further, he added.

"If people are nervous travellers, it doesn't take much to make them non-passengers," he said. (Agencies via Xinhua)