Opinion writers should occasionally go out on a limb, so here are a few of my predictions for the new year:

A resurgent global economy will provide a generally positive back-drop to the events of 2004, with super-charged recovery in the US supporting growth in all open economies. China will once again be the star performer, with Asia remaining the most rapidly developing region. India will also grow strongly and even the long-comatose Japanese economy will see its best year for over a decade. The world trade picture will begin to look more promising after a dismal 2003.

Terrorist violence will continue to darken the situation, with the definite possibility of catastrophic attacks on the scale of 9/11, or worse. On the upside, increasing international counter-terrorism co-operation will help to bring the world together in 2004, with no issue proving remotely as divisive as the 2003 Iraq war.

Instability and violence in the Middle East will keep the world on edge, with progress proving frustratingly slow amid numerous nasty shocks. Israel will concentrate upon building its security wall, which will improve its tactical situation by decreasing Palestinian attacks, although strategic dead-lock will persist. The US-led coalition in Iraq will attempt to smooth the "Iraqification" of the new regime (handing over power to a fragile local government in the summer). Worries about the integrity of the country, especially concerning Sunni-Shi'ite tensions, will pre-occupy the region. Many Mid-East states, Saudi Arabia in particular, will have a difficult - even terrifying - 2004.

The North Korean crisis will also defy easy solution, despite intensifying engagement by its neighbouring Asian governments (China and Japan in particular). Simply preventing a catastrophe on the peninsula will demand determined and imaginative diplomacy. Feeling overstretched and short of workable ideas, the US will be keen for others to take the lead in northern Asia in 2004.

The world will see a rash of elections in 2004, with incumbents generally favoured. In the US, George W. Bush will decisively defeat Howard Dean in November, with his fellow conservative John Howard winning in Australia. Canada's new Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin will also comfortably retain power, while in India the BJP-led National Alliance will easily see off a disorganized challenge by the opposition Congress party. A crucial election in Indonesia, on the other hand, is likely to usher in a new government to deal with that nation's unenviable problems.

The situation in Pakistan will test the world's nerves in 2004, with President Musharraf's government remaining under immense pressure from Islamist terrorism allied to neighbouring Afghanistan's deposed Taliban regime. As with the international terrorist threat more widely, the world's great powers will demonstrate a common interest in maintaining stability in this nuclear-armed and fractured country.

An expanded EU will struggle in 2004, wrestling with a toxic cocktail of disappointing growth, structural rigidities, institutional wrangles and major security threats. Expect at least one major terrorist attack on a European city, growing popular protest and a rise in political extremism - especially over the issues of immigration and welfare reform - by the end of a very difficult year for the old continent.

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