Striking softer targets

Shanghai Star. 2003-11-20

LONDON - With two devastating attacks in a week, al Qaeda and its allies have opened a surprising new front and shown themselves willing to shed the blood of Muslims as freely as that of "infidels".

Suicide bombings in Saudi Arabia and Turkey, widely blamed on al Qaeda or its associates, extend an 18-month pattern of striking in Muslim nations which the Islamists see as corrupt and apostate lackeys of the US.

Security analysts say al Qaeda, dispersed and weakened after two years of the "war on terror", appears unready for a spectacular fresh strike on US soil, even if America remains its enemy of choice.

But with two quick, deadly blows on easier targets, it is seeking to expand its operations elsewhere, to generate fresh impetus and to prove it is still a force to be reckoned with.

"This is a conscious attempt of al Qaeda to rejuvenate itself, to create and harness some new momentum by striking within a week of one another in co-ordinated attacks," said Bruce Hoffman of the Rand Corporation in Washington.

Coming against a backdrop of previous attacks in North and East Africa, the Gulf and Southeast Asia, Saturday's car bomb attacks on synagogues in Istanbul showed the militants' ability to spring surprises and open new theatres of operations.

Osama bin Laden's network had no previous history of activity in Turkey, a NATO member on Europe's southeastern rim.

"Now they are moving to Turkey, maybe from Turkey there will be a springboard to different European countries, that's an open question," said Rolf Tophoven, head of the Institute for Terrorism Research and Security Policy in Essen, Germany.

Firing line

More than previous attacks, the Saudi and Turkish bombings highlighted Islamic militants' willingness to kill Muslims, as well as Jews, Americans or other Westerners, to destabilise what they see as tyrannical Middle Eastern regimes.

Shock in the Islamic world was magnified by the fact that the attacks were carried out at the height of Ramadan, the Muslim holy month, and women and children were among the victims.

"They've declared a war and they're intent on prosecuting that war ... This is a price they're willing to pay but it's alarming that they seem to have embraced this ruthlessness in Muslim countries," Hoffman said.

An Israeli intelligence source involved in the Istanbul investigation said al Qaeda's methods contrasted with those of Palestinian groups like Hamas that make a point of avoiding "friendly" casualties.

"The Istanbul bombings are the latest attack firming up al Qaeda's modus operandi. The bombers had to have known the security precautions in place around the synagogues would have prevented them penetrating and hitting Jews exclusively, but they struck nonetheless, killing many Muslims," he said.

As in previous attacks in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, "al Qaeda goes for high Muslim body counts as part of its efforts to destabilise 'infidel' moderate regimes," the source said.

The residential compound targeted by suicide bombers in Riyadh on November 9 was within earshot of Saudi royal palaces. Most of the 18 victims were Arab expatriates and five were children. One hundred and twenty people were wounded.

US, still top target

Terrorism analysts say the US still heads al Qaeda's target list, closely followed by its chief allies in the war on terror.

That is certainly the consistent message from audiotapes of Osama bin Laden and statements issued in al Qaeda's name, even if their authenticity is hard to verify. The latest, published in an Arab paper last Monday, singled out the US, Britain, Italy, Australia and Japan.

But experts doubt whether bin Laden's network, weakened by the killing or capture of key leaders, has the capacity to stage a spectacular attack in the West, despite its repeated threats to devastate the enemy on his own soil.

Al Qaeda has failed to bring off an attack in a Western country for over two years - hence the focus on softer, more achievable targets in Muslim countries.

"Al Qaeda's going to strike where they feel there's more latitude and where they don't have a track record, because they believe it will be easier," Hoffman said.

(Agencies via Xinhua)



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