| QFII
refreshes capital market (11/15/2002)
Global investment bank Goldman Sachs yesterday praised China's
recent moves to open its stock market to foreign institutional investors.
But added that the appeal of the market needs to be further improved
and the rules further relaxed before the "milestone" reform
can produce the desired results.
"The QFII is a tremendously significant move in the reform,
especially the opening-up, of China's capital market," said
Fred Hu, managing director of Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C.
China unveiled its long-awaited qualified foreign institutional
investor (QFII) scheme last Thursday, allowing foreigners to trade
its A shares and bonds that were previously only available to Chinese
investors. The government had been prudent with the move, given
the partial convertibility of its currency, renminbi, on the capital
account.
Hu said the primary significance of the move, rather than drawing
in much-needed foreign capital, is that the foreign institutional
investors, valuing long-term returns rather than reaping profits
from speculation, could help listed companies improve their performance
and bring about a more mature investment philosophy.
However, Hu said China's QFII rules are unnecessarily stringent,
and that, coupled with other long-standing concerns including a
lack of transparency, is likely to keep major international investors
from coming in, in the near term.
Hu had extensively consulted major international investors and
fund mangagers about the scheme and they reacted, he said, with
caution. "Most of the international investors welcomed the
QFII, there's no doubt," he said. "But the vast majority
of them are waiting on the sidelines. They are unlikely to enter
the market immediately, nor would they flood in."
International investors have largely found three areas of the QFII
rules too strict, he said. They include the long investment periods
required before repatriation is allowed - a minimum one-year and
a three-year period for close-end funds - overly complicated repatriation
procedures, and a stipulation that the investor can choose only
one domestic securities firm as its agent.
The regulators had probably been overprudent, he said, as foreign
capital is predicted by Goldman Sachs to account for only 10-15
per cent of total funds trading in Chinese shares in three to five
years, should all the "basic factors," including improved
transparency and more reasonable price-to-earnings ratios, fall
into place.
"There should be a further loosening (in QFII rules) to realize
the expected goals of the reform," Hu said.
A few overseas financial institutions, however, had expressed interest
in a role in QFII. The BOCI Securities Co Ltd, 49 per cent-owned
by the BOC International Holdings Co Ltd, the Bank of China's (BOC)
Hong Kong-based investment banking arm, said last Friday that it
would try for the first QFII licence. And the Standard Chartered
Bank announced later that it would apply for a trusteeship in the
scheme.
The news of the move has largely exerted downward pressure on the
stock market in the past few days as it stoked fears that the hard
currency-denominated B shares, available also to foreigners, may
eventually lose their importance.
The managing director said he also saw the move as the start of
China's liberalization process of its capital account, which still
imposes strict controls on cross-border capital flows. "The
QFII broke through the forbidden area," he noted.
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