| Experts,
delegates hail realistic long-term goal
(11/13/2002)
Two decades ago when he was publicizing China's strategic objectives
for the end of the century, Qian Zhi, who had just graduated from
the Economics Department of Shanghai-based Fudan University, was
not very sure of it himself.
"The objective, to quadruple the country's 1980 gross domestic
product (GDP) so that it would reach 2.8 trillion yuan (US$337.3
billion) by 2000, sounded like an impossible feat at that time,"
recalls Qian, who is a delegate to the on-going 16th National Congress
of the Communist Party of China (CPC).
Economist Hu Angang, who is following the congress, admits that
when the objective was first proposed, the rest of the world did
not seem to believe it was achievable. "Even we (economists)
dared not think of it in our study."
Twenty years on, Jiang Zemin's report to the 16th Party Congress
puts forward yet another goal, that of building a well-off society
in an all-round way by the year 2020, when the country's GDP is
expected to exceed a whopping 35 trillion yuan (US$4.2 trillion),
quadruple the 2000 figure.
While Hu deems the grand goal possible, Qian shows a more qualified
acceptance.
"It can very well be achieved, by a healthy margin even, if
efforts are put into it," said Qian, who is now Party secretary
for Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture in Northwest China's Xingjiang
Uygur Autonomous Region.
Given the guidance from Deng Xiaoping Theory and Jiang Zemin's
important thought of the Three Represents, and the experience accumulated
from the economic development of the last 20 years, the foundation
laid by that development, as well as a socialist market economy
well-adapted to Chinese conditions, Qian said he is full of confidence
that the objective can be accomplished. Particularly, Qian added,
the period in which the objective is to be accomplished offers important
strategic opportunities.
According to an analysis from Hu, director of the Centre for Chinese
Studies at Tsinghua University, the fairly high rate of domestic
savings in China will accordingly bring about a high rate of domestic
investment. In addition, the rise in the average education level
over the past 10 years and an expected improvement in education
quality in the years to come, as well as a more vigorous State-owned
economy and improved non-public economies, will join forces with
market-oriented reforms to propel the economic growth.
This is confirmed by Dai Xianglong, governor of the People's Bank
of China, the country's central bank.
Dai said the country's high savings rate, which puts it ahead of
other countries, is a guarantee of sufficient credit capital. He
said the central bank will apply various monetary policies to increase
monetary supply.
He also predicts that the future rise in monetary supply in China
will exceed by a fairly big margin the growth of the economy and
commodity prices put together.
"China is capable of raising funds from diverse channels to
sustain the building of a well-off society in an all-round way,"
he said.
Xinhua
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